The Escalating T2D Burden in Alberta
Prevalence & Growth Trajectory
The province of Alberta is confronting a rapidly escalating public health crisis in the form of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D). The market for an effective, scalable T2D solution is not merely large; it is growing at an alarming and accelerating rate.
- Current State (2024): Approximately 398,440 Albertans (9% of population) live with diabetes (type 1 and type 2, diagnosed and undiagnosed)
- Including Pre-diabetes: 1.3 million Albertans (28% of population) are affected by diabetes or pre-diabetes
- Projected Growth: By 2034, diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase by 49%, reaching over 561,000 people
Diabetes often coexists with obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol, creating a synergistic effect that worsens outcomes. Because many of these conditions share lifestyle-related risk factors, diabetes becomes a central node in a web of preventable diseases.
Geographic Concentration: The Rutherford Zone Case Study
Provincial-level data masks an even more critical reality at the municipal and sub-municipal levels. Granular data from specific health zones within Edmonton reveals that the problem is concentrated in "hotspots" of hyper-prevalence.
2004 Baseline
5.0
Age-standardized prevalence rate
208
Prevalent cases
2023 Current
10.33
Age-standardized prevalence rate
9,755
Prevalent cases
Growth Factor
2.1x
Prevalence rate increase
46.9x
Case volume increase
Standard Score Evolution: The Rutherford zone's standard score (comparing its rate to the provincial average) climbed from -1.36 (below average) in 2004 to a staggering +15.79 (far above average) by 2023.
This concentration presents a distinct strategic advantage. A go-to-market strategy can be surgical and highly efficient, focusing initial resources on these hotspots where the problem is most acute, the target demographic is most concentrated, and the potential for rapid word-of-mouth adoption is highest.
Cardiovascular Complications
2.5-3x
More likely to suffer heart attacks or unstable angina than those without diabetes
3-4x
More likely to require coronary revascularization procedures (angioplasty, bypass surgery)
Foot Disease & Amputations
15x
More likely to undergo lower-limb amputation than those without diabetes
2x
Higher incidence of foot disease, especially in those aged 75+
Healthcare System Utilization
- Adults with diabetes visit family doctors and specialists 2-3 times more often than non-diabetics
- They spend 3 times more days in hospital compared to those without diabetes
- Children and adolescents with diabetes spend 9 times more days hospitalized annually
These numbers paint a clear picture: diabetes is not just a chronic condition—it's a gateway to multimorbidity, driving up hospital visits, surgical interventions, and long-term disability.
Diabetes: A Gateway to Broader Health Challenges
Diabetes isn't just a standalone condition; it's often the entry point to a cascade of other serious health problems. A recent study from the University of Cambridge found that people with type 2 diabetes face a higher risk of developing 57 other health conditions, often 5 years earlier than those without diabetes.
Associated Conditions Include:
- Cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks, stroke)
- Kidney failure and chronic kidney disease
- Vision loss due to diabetic retinopathy
- Neurological disorders (dementia, neuropathy)
- Mental health conditions (depression)
- Increased cancer risk (liver, pancreatic)
- 5.2x higher risk of end-stage kidney disease
- 4.4x higher risk of liver cancer
Over 537 million adults live with diabetes today, projected to reach 783 million by 2045. Diabetes is a major contributor to multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), where individuals suffer from two or more chronic illnesses simultaneously, placing immense pressure on healthcare systems worldwide.
National Context (Canada)
Source: Diabetes Canada, 2024 Backgrounder
Economic Impact in Alberta
$556M
Annual healthcare system cost in Alberta (2024)
$76-$6,557
Annual out-of-pocket costs per patient (varies by type and severity)
Strategic Implications for ThriveAB
This provincial-level crisis, with its concentrated geographic hotspots and escalating economic burden, creates multiple strategic opportunities:
- Surgical Market Entry: Focus on identified hotspots (e.g., Rutherford zone) where prevalence is highest and market density supports rapid adoption
- Compelling Value Proposition: The economic imperative creates receptive audiences among AHS policymakers, corporate wellness programs, and individual patients
- Referral Network Foundation: High patient volume in concentrated areas enables efficient PCN partnerships and physician referral networks
- Word-of-Mouth Amplification: Dense target demographic in specific zones accelerates organic growth through patient evangelism
The market is not a monolith but a collection of high-need communities. By establishing a strong beachhead in zones like Rutherford, ThriveAB can build a powerful local brand and base of patient evangelists before undertaking more capital-intensive, province-wide expansion.